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Senator Barack Obama and Governor Mike Huckabee
were the big winners in Iowa last night. This is
the first official vote of the 2008 campaigns, and
its effect really shouldn’t be underestimated.
Yes, Iowa is one state and as we pointed out last
week, the caucuses have a completely different breakdown
of voters than the general election, but the effects
of momentum after Iowa helped make John Kerry the
nominee, and the supporters of Obama and Huckabee
will be looking to surf that same wave.
So here’s a little more information on
the caucus results and what they mean (or could
mean) for the rest of us as we head into next
week’s New Hampshire primary.
For the Democrats, it’s been perceived
as a three-way race between Obama, Hillary Clinton,
and John Edwards for a while. While Kaffeine Buzz
doesn’t put too much stock in poll numbers,
that is indeed how it turned out last night, with
Bill Richardson, the next-closest competitor,
getting only about 2% of the vote. Obama’s
37.6% gave him a commanding lead over John Edwards,
at 29.8%, and Hillary Clinton’s 29.5%. Joe
Biden and Christopher Dodd each had 1% of the
vote. Last week’s column about the Iowa
caucuses explained the “viability”
requirement which means that for the Democrats
at least, these numbers don’t really show
how many supporters each of these candidates had.
NPR reported that Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson
both encouraged their supporters to vote for Obama
if they did not make the viability cut.
Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have now dropped out
of the race. Bill Richardson, happy with his fourth-place
finish, is looking ahead to New Hampshire, but
knows he needs a better finish there to remain
in the race. No word yet on Dennis Kucinich or
Mike Gravel.
Turnout was the story of the night for the Democrats.
More than twice as many Democrats as Republicans
came out to the caucuses, and 57% of them were
first-time caucusgoers. 239,000 was a record turnout
for the Democrats, and those aged 17-29 made up
the second-largest age group (tied with 65 and
older) and voted overwhelmingly for Obama (57%,
compared to 11% for Clinton and 14% for Edwards).
Check out more statistics at:
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/20080103_IOWAPOLL_GRAPHIC.html
So what does this really mean? Obama is now the
clear front-runner going into New Hampshire, but
that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s
the inevitable nominee. But his large-margin win
in a 95% white state that went to Bush in 2004
bodes well for his viability as a candidate across
America. No African-American candidate has ever
won a primary by such a lead. Jesse Jackson won
Virginia, South Carolina, and Louisiana in 1984.
More importantly, it means that new voters and
young voters can really have an impact when they
bother to turn out. And perhaps it’s a sign
that they are finally getting motivated to do
so, at least on the Democratic side.
With about 115,000 people turning out, the Republican
caucuses were less decisive and less uplifting
for the party as a whole. Mike Huckabee was the
winner with 34% of the vote, beating Mitt Romney,
who got 25.3%. Next in line were Fred Thompson
and John McCain with 13.4% and 13.1% respectively.
Ron Paul got 10%, beating the once-perceived front
runner Rudy Giuliani, who only had 3.5%.
Huckabee’s victory was due in large part
to evangelical Christians. 60% of the Republicans
described themselves as such, and 46% of them
voted for Huckabee. This translates into a less
certain front-runner position for the Baptist
minister, who heads into New Hampshire where the
party has far fewer evangelicals. Still, it gives
him credibility and status among the leaders.
He also appeared on Jay Leno’s show the
night before the caucuses, although some have
noted that he crossed a picket line of striking
writers to do so.
Rudy Giuliani hadn’t campaigned much personally
in Iowa, but he had spent money and is probably
disappointed with his finish behind long shot
(but good fundraiser) Ron Paul. Mitt Romney, by
far the biggest spender, is most likely also disappointed,
but is still popular in New Hampshire. John McCain
also barely campaigned in Iowa but got endorsements
from several newspapers and had a good showing.
Of course, a candidate could lose Iowa by a mile
and still win the nomination. They could lose
New Hampshire, too. Bill Clinton did. But the
significance of these early states can’t
be denied. Already two candidates have dropped
out of the Democratic race, and Republicans had
been dropping out even before the vote. Tom Tancredo
and Sam Brownback have already quit, and Fred
Thompson may be next. The only thing that’s
really been decided is Iowa’s delegates,
but that’s a better indicator than poll
numbers.
-Sarah Jaffe - Friday, January 4, 2008
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